In article the analysis of features, conditions and restrictions of application of existing methods of working out and acceptance of administrative decisions is presented.
Universal character, however their grouping has the majority of methods of working out and acceptance of administrative decisions is carried out on the basis of long-term researches of authors and directed on ordering of set of methods, for simplification of process of acquaintance to them, their studying, and also for convenience of their practical application. Also for convenience of studying and use of these methods their set is divided into groups on stages of process of working out and acceptance of administrative decisions.
In the course of working out and acceptance of administrative decisions the person, the making decision, can use various methods which expressly or by implication promote acceptance of optimum decisions.
Decision-making process is difficult iterative procedure. The decision-making process block diagramme can look like:
For convenience of studying and use of these methods their set is divided into groups on stages of process of working out and acceptance of administrative decisions. Certainly, some methods are universal and can be used on several or even all stages of process of working out and decision-making. Therefore methods are included in this or that group on the basis of their most frequent use within the limits of performance of a concrete stage of process of working out and decision-making.
Let's notice that universal character, however their grouping has the majority of methods is carried out on the basis of long-term researches of authors and directed on ordering of set of methods, for simplification of process of acquaintance to them, their studying, and also for convenience of their practical application.
Let's consider the methods applied at a stage of diagnostics of a problem and the formulation of restrictions and criteria
Let's consider situation analysis methods
Step-by-step analysis of situations. It is applied to the analysis of administrative situations. Differs simplicity and efficiency.
The analysis of a situation by generation of ideas, their discussions, an estimation and development of the collective point of view. It is applied to discussion of the arisen problem and an establishment of the major factors defining its further development. High requirements to a skill level and the competence of the head heading session of experts.
Two rounds questioning.
The establishment of influencing factors by individual work of experts. It is applied not only to an establishment of influencing factors, but also for the decision of other problems of a situation analysis. Is among universal methods of a situation analysis.
The factorial analysis.
Reception of the analytical dependence reflecting degree of influence of factors and change of their values on planned or actual indicators, characterising a situation. It is applied to an estimation of expected changes of a situation at those or other expected changes of factors owing to the outlined tendencies or the administrative influences which expediency is established in the course of use of technologies of a situation analysis. Analytical dependence turns out on the basis of the statistical data.
On the basis of mathematical processing of the information the factors influencing development of a situation are established. It is applied to reduction of number of factors which are necessary for taking into consideration at the analysis and a situation assessment, and also for substantial interpretation of a received set of factors. Promotes fall of dimension of a problem of decision-making.
Let's consider modelling methods
Models of the theory of games.
The estimation of influence of the made decision on competitors. It is applied to definition of the most important and demanding account of factors in a situation of decision-making in the conditions of competitive struggle. It is used not so often owing to complexity and dynamism of an environment.
Models of the theory of mass service.
Definition of optimum number of channels of service in relation to requirement for them. It is applied in conditions when for decision-making it is required to estimate optimum number of channels of service which are necessary for having for balancing costs in cases of excessively small and their excessively big quantity. Methods in which the entering stream is poisson are most developed and convenient for use.
Definition of time of placing of orders for resources and their quantities, and also weights of finished goods in warehouses. It is applied to minimising of negative consequences of accumulation of stocks that is expressed in certain costs. There are some systems of regulation of stocks.
Creation of model and its experimental application for definition of changes of a real situation. It is used in the situations connected with excessive by a great number of variables, difficulty of the mathematical analysis of certain dependences between variables or high level of uncertainty. All models mean imitation application in a broad sense.
The economic analysis.
The estimation of a financial and economic condition of the enterprise. It is used in the conditions of availability and reliability of the accounting reporting. The typical economic model is based on definition of a point of break-even.
Optimum linear programming.
The finding of a maximum or a criterion function minimum at the set restrictions. A necessary condition of use of the optimum approach to planning and management (an optimality principle) – flexibility, alternativeness of industrial-economic situations in which conditions it is necessary to make according to plan-administrative decisions. Traditional criteria of an optimality: “a profit maximum” “a minimum of expenses” “a profitability maximum” etc.
The analysis and system engineering. It is applied to modelling and the analysis of activity of the enterprises as gives a rich set of possibilities for reengineering of business processes. The method is based on technology of the structured analysis and working out (SADT).
Let's consider the methods applied at a stage of definition of alternatives
The method “brainstorming”.
Revealing and comparison of individual judgements. It is applied in the conditions of presence of group of the qualified experts. It is intended for activization of search of various variants of decisions and a choice of best of them.
The morphological analysis.
Reception of new decisions by drawing up of combinations of elements of morphological model (matrix). It is applied to generation of alternatives of decisions in the conditions of definition of a class of means for performance of the set functions, and also object parametres. It can be used for forecasting.
Methods of associations and analogies.
Revealing of new ideas. Are applied to generation of alternatives of decisions in the conditions of search of updatings of known systems. Are characterised by simplicity and efficiency.
Methods of control questions and a collective notebook.
Leading to the decision of a problem by means of leading questions. Can be applied both in individual work, and at collective discussion of a problem. In questions recommendations about approbation of heuristic receptions for the task in view decision contain.
The method “opening matrixes”.
The choice and studying of a field of possible decisions by means of a matrix. It is applied to ordering of an available material and definition of basic points of the further research. Unlike a method of the morphological analysis the part of the chosen characteristics can concern not system, and to conditions of its operation.
Search of the necessary decision thanks to overcoming of the psychological inertia consisting in aspiration to solve a problem by a traditional way. It is applied to creativity activization, allows to be beyond any concrete views and considerably expands a range of search of new ideas. The method of sinectica widely uses personal analogy (empathy).
Let's consider the methods applied at an evaluation stage of alternatives
Methods multiobjective estimations.
The estimation and comparison of alternatives by several criteria. It is applied in the conditions of necessity of the account of several parametres at an alternative estimation. The great value has validity of a choice of criteria.
Methods of an expert estimation.
Construction by the expert of rational procedure of the intuitively-logic analysis in a combination to a quantitative estimation and processing of results. Are applied for a wide range of non-formalizable problems which can be not always estimated in quantitative measurement, and also for the decision of problems of social and economic character or in the conditions of absence of the information from external sources. There are high requirements to competence of experts.
Forecasting on the basis of generalisation of opinions of experts about object development in the future. Are applied at forecasting of objects which do not give in to mathematical formalisation. Into structure of expert methods enter both individual, and collective methods.
Forecasting on the basis of the actual information on the past and the present development of object. Are applied in conditions, when probability of preservation of the factors which have caused development in the past, more than probability of their change. At occurrence of unforeseen restrictions use of these methods can lead to errors in forecasts. Reliability and accuracy facto-graphics methods can be increased at the expense of their combination to expert methods of forecasting.
The combined methods.
Forecasting on the basis of expert and facto-graphics information. Are applied to the decision of problems of a wide profile (from formalized to non-formalizable). Often these methods are used for decision-making top-level managements.
Let's consider the methods applied at a stage of a choice, realisation of the decision and a result estimation
The is functional-cost analysis.
Revealing of zones of a disbalance between functions of object and expenses for them. It is applied to a choice of decisions and optimisation of expenses for execution of functions of object without a damage to their quality. Possesses high practical utility.
The method of chain substitutions.
Consecutive replacement of planned sizes of one of factors for definition of degree of its influence on function. It is applied in conditions when the problem has strictly expressed functional character. Allows to reveal, for what account of factors there were deviations of actual sizes from the planned.
The cause and effect analysis.
Definition of hierarchy of causes and effects to that point in which it is possible to undertake the action eliminating a problem. It is applied in conditions when the person, the making decision, has full and a trustworthy information about investigated object. It is difficult to define the moment when it is necessary to stop in construction of a cause and effect chain.
1. Lukicheva L.I. Classification of methods of working out and acceptance of administrative decisions [http://www.iteam.ru/publications/strategy/section_17/article_3960/]
2. Puzankov D.V., Ushakov V.N. Decision Support. Methods of acceptance of administrative decisions [http://old.ulstu.ru/people/SOSNIN/umk/Decisions_Support/metod/model.htm]
The author: Челябэнергопроект
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